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A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area

Autor Federal Reserve Board
en Limba Engleză Paperback
We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latter being released in a more timely manner. Second, the model tracks well the dynamics of trade variables conditional on the path of macroeconomic variables during the great recession; this result makes our model a reliable tool for scenario analysis. Third, we quantify the contribution of the most important euro area trading partners (regions) to the aggregate extra euro area developments: we evaluate the impact of an increase of the external demand from a specific region on the extra euro area trade.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9781511660518
ISBN-10: 1511660511
Pagini: 36
Dimensiuni: 216 x 279 x 2 mm
Greutate: 0.11 kg
Editura: CREATESPACE