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Analyzing and Modeling Multivariate Association: Quantitative Ökonomie, Bd. 176

Autor Julius Schnieders
en Limba Engleză Paperback – 4 mar 2013
Many applications in quantitative finance, such as the estimation of the Value-at-Risk of a portfolio, require the modeling of dependencies of a large number of random variables. The most popular approach is Pearson's correlation coefficient, which is based on the covariance, i. e. the mixed second moments of the corresponding random variables. However, the correlation coefficient only captures linear dependencies and solely in case of a few distributions, such as the multivariate normal distribution, completely determines the dependence structure.Empirical data, unfortunately, is often non-normal and exhibits asymmetric dependence patterns. The multivariate normal distribution, for example, often underestimates the probability of simultaneous extremes, which can lead to incorrect estimates of the risk of a given portfolio. Hence, for many empirical applications, the normal distribution is not suitable.As an alternative concept of dependence modeling, the theory of copulas has drawn a lot of attention in the past decades. Based on this theory, the author introduces a new class of measures of association between random vectors that are invariant with respect to the marginal distribution functions of the considered random vectors and can distinguish between positive and negative association.The second part of the thesis focuses on the modeling of high dimensional dependencies with Pair-copula constructions. To this end, a data-driven sequential estimation method for these models is developed. Empirical applications of these models in Value-at-Risk forecasting and the spatial modeling of meteorological data are given.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9783844102291
ISBN-10: 3844102299
Pagini: 228
Dimensiuni: 148 x 210 x 15 mm
Greutate: 0.34 kg
Editura: Josef Eul Verlag GmbH
Colecția Quantitative Ökonomie, Bd. 176
Seria Quantitative Ökonomie, Bd. 176


Notă biografică

Julius Schnieders, born in 1983, studied Mathematics with a focus on Statistics in Münster and Madrid. He finished his studies in 2008 and became a member of the Graduate School of Risk Management at the University of Cologne. In 2012, he completed his doctoral studies in Statistics at the Chair of Economic and Social Statistics of Prof. Dr. Friedrich Schmid. He has written articles on dependence modeling, and has given presentations on this subject at several international conferences.

Cuprins

1. Introduction2. Copulas and Dependence Concepts2.1. Theory of Copulas2.2. Parametric Copula Families2.3. Survival and rotated copulas2.4. The empirical copula2.5. Measures of Association3. Association of Random Vectors3.1. Notation and definitions3.2. Established measures of association3.3. Copula based measures of association3.4. Statistical estimation of the measures3.5. Empirical example3.6. Influence of outliers3.7. Conclusion 4. Pair-Copula Constructions4.1. Pair-Copula Constructions4.2. Conditional distribution functions4.3. Vines4.4. Simplified PCCs4.5. Estimation of Pair-Copula Constructions4.6. Simulation Techniques4.7. Conclusion5. Model Selection for Pair-Copula Constructions5.1. Model Selection for bivariate copulas5.2. Goodness-of-Fit5.3. Model selection for Vine Structures5.4. Simulation Study5.5. Application to Empirical Datasets5.6. Conclusion6. Application of Pair-Copula Constructions6.1. Dynamic PCC Models: An Application with Value-at-Risk Forecasting6.2. Spatial dependence in wind and optimal wind power allocation