At Our Own Peril: DOD Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World: DOD Assessment in a Post-Primacy World
Autor Nathan Freier Master's Editat de Strategic Studies Institute (U.S.)en Limba Engleză Paperback – 18 iul 2017 – vârsta de la 18 până la 95 ani
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) faces persistent fundamental change in its strategic and operating environments. This report suggests this reality is the product of the United States entering or being in the midst of a new, more competitive, post-U.S. primacy environment. Post-primacy conditions promise far-reaching impacts on U.S. national security and defense strategy. Consequently, there is an urgent requirement for DoD to examine and adapt how it develops strategy and describes, identifies, assesses, and communicates corporate-level risk. This report takes on the latter risk challenge. It argues for a new post-primacy risk concept and its four governing principles of diversity, dynamism, persistent dialogue, and adaptation. The authors suggest that this approach is critical to maintaining U.S. military advantage into the future. Absent change in current risk convention, the report suggests DoD exposes current and future military performance to potential failure or gross under-performance.
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Related items:
Security, Defense, and Law Enforcement resources collection is available here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement
Other products produced by the US Army, Strategic Studies Institute can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/agency/strategic-studies-institute-ssi
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781584877615
ISBN-10: 1584877618
Pagini: 141
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 mm
Greutate: 0.4 kg
Ediția:New Edition, Updated & Revised
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army
ISBN-10: 1584877618
Pagini: 141
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 mm
Greutate: 0.4 kg
Ediția:New Edition, Updated & Revised
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army
Notă biografică
NATHAN P. FREIER is an Associate Professor of National Security Studies with the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). He came to SSI in August 2013 after 5 years with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) where he was a senior fellow in the International Security Program. Mr. Freier joined CSIS in April 2008 after completing a 20-year career in the U.S. Army. His last military assignment was as Director of National Security Affairs at SSI. From August 2008 to July 2012, Mr. Freier also served as a visiting research professor in strategy, policy, and risk assessment at the U.S. Army War College’s Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI) under the provisions of the Intergovernmental Personnel Act. Mr. Freier is a veteran of numerous strategy development and strategic planning efforts at Headquarters, Department of the Army; the Office of the Secretary of Defense; and two senior-level military staffs in Iraq. Mr. Freier is widely published on a range of national security issues and continues to provide expert advice to the national security and defense communities. His areas of expertise are defense and military strategy and policy development and strategic net and risk assessment. He holds master’s degrees in both international relations and politics and is a graduate of the U.S. Army’s Command and General Staff College.
Cuprins
Table of Contents:
Foreword ………………………………………………………………………………i.x
Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………xi
Executive Summary ……………………………………………………………………xv
Foundational Understanding ……………………………………………………………1
I. Introduction: Post-U.S. Primacy and the New Fundamentals
of Risk and Risk Assessment …………………………………………...………...…....3
II. Study Methodology …………………………………………...……………………....13
Describing Risk …………………………………………………………………………...17
III. The Logic of Post-Primacy Risk: Current Conventions
and New Terms of Reference ……………………………………….…………............19
Identifying Risk …………………………………………………………………………….39
IV. Securing U.S. Position: Six Enduring Defense Objectives ……………………......41
V. A Post-Primacy Decision-Making Environment …………………………….….........53
Assessing and Communicating Risk ……………………………………………………..67
VI. A Post-Primacy Risk Concept: Diversity, Dynamism,
Persistent Dialogue, and Adaptation ………………………………………….................69
VII. Communicating Risk: A Common Risk Currency ……………………………...........87
Study Outcomes ……………………………………………………………………………...91
VIII. Findings and Recommendations ………………………………………………...........93
IX. Conclusion—Ownership, Culture, and Adaptation ………………………….............103
Appendices …………………………………………………………………………………...107
Appendix I - Building the Principal Risk Portfolio:
Illustrative Hazards and Demands ………………………….…… .................................109
Appendix II - Expert Working Group (EWG) Participants ……………………….............111
Appendix III - About the Contributors ………………………………………………...........113
Foreword ………………………………………………………………………………i.x
Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………xi
Executive Summary ……………………………………………………………………xv
Foundational Understanding ……………………………………………………………1
I. Introduction: Post-U.S. Primacy and the New Fundamentals
of Risk and Risk Assessment …………………………………………...………...…....3
II. Study Methodology …………………………………………...……………………....13
Describing Risk …………………………………………………………………………...17
III. The Logic of Post-Primacy Risk: Current Conventions
and New Terms of Reference ……………………………………….…………............19
Identifying Risk …………………………………………………………………………….39
IV. Securing U.S. Position: Six Enduring Defense Objectives ……………………......41
V. A Post-Primacy Decision-Making Environment …………………………….….........53
Assessing and Communicating Risk ……………………………………………………..67
VI. A Post-Primacy Risk Concept: Diversity, Dynamism,
Persistent Dialogue, and Adaptation ………………………………………….................69
VII. Communicating Risk: A Common Risk Currency ……………………………...........87
Study Outcomes ……………………………………………………………………………...91
VIII. Findings and Recommendations ………………………………………………...........93
IX. Conclusion—Ownership, Culture, and Adaptation ………………………….............103
Appendices …………………………………………………………………………………...107
Appendix I - Building the Principal Risk Portfolio:
Illustrative Hazards and Demands ………………………….…… .................................109
Appendix II - Expert Working Group (EWG) Participants ……………………….............111
Appendix III - About the Contributors ………………………………………………...........113