Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence
Autor Katherine H. Pherson, Randolph H. Phersonen Limba Engleză Paperback – 27 oct 2020
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781544374260
ISBN-10: 1544374267
Pagini: 464
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 29 mm
Greutate: 0.54 kg
Ediția:Third Edition
Editura: SAGE Publications
Colecția CQ Press
Locul publicării:Washington DC, United States
ISBN-10: 1544374267
Pagini: 464
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 29 mm
Greutate: 0.54 kg
Ediția:Third Edition
Editura: SAGE Publications
Colecția CQ Press
Locul publicării:Washington DC, United States
Recenzii
“This is a wonderful resource for those beginning to master analytical writing techniques. It's thorough, complete and engaging. [The text is] an excellent resource for beginners who want to learn how to conduct intelligence analysis.”
This is exactly what I have been looking for to use for the advanced analytics course, as it combines techniques with application and has some examples. It walks the new analyst through the process and discusses the techniques for success. Best book I have found on the practical aspects of intelligence analysis.”
“Many instructors of undergraduate students complain that their students do not possess the tools and skills for problem solving, research, analysis, and writing demanded for their academic programs. Deployment of this text, in any academic field or context, can help solve that problem.”
“The Phersons have produced a clear and detailed guide to the application of critical thinking in the preparation of effective analytical presentations. This book should serve as essential reading for analysts everywhere, especially students and young professionals.”
This is exactly what I have been looking for to use for the advanced analytics course, as it combines techniques with application and has some examples. It walks the new analyst through the process and discusses the techniques for success. Best book I have found on the practical aspects of intelligence analysis.”
“Many instructors of undergraduate students complain that their students do not possess the tools and skills for problem solving, research, analysis, and writing demanded for their academic programs. Deployment of this text, in any academic field or context, can help solve that problem.”
“The Phersons have produced a clear and detailed guide to the application of critical thinking in the preparation of effective analytical presentations. This book should serve as essential reading for analysts everywhere, especially students and young professionals.”
Cuprins
The Critical Thinker’s Checklist
List of Figures
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Third Edition
Introduction
Part I: How Do I Get Started?
Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?
Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?
Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?
Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?
Chapter 7: How Do Models Help My Analysis?
Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?
Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?
Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Part III: What Is My Argument?
Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?
Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
Chapter 14: How Do I Deal With Politicization?
Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?
Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
Chapter 19: How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Part V: Case Studies
Case Study I: Uncharted Territory
Case Study II: Russian Disinformation
Case Study III: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!
Case Study IV: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
Case Study V: Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
Case Study VI: The Case of Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index
The Analyst’s Roadmap
List of Figures
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Third Edition
Introduction
Part I: How Do I Get Started?
Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?
Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?
Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?
Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?
Chapter 7: How Do Models Help My Analysis?
Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?
Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?
Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Part III: What Is My Argument?
Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?
Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
Chapter 14: How Do I Deal With Politicization?
Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?
Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
Chapter 19: How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Part V: Case Studies
Case Study I: Uncharted Territory
Case Study II: Russian Disinformation
Case Study III: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!
Case Study IV: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
Case Study V: Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
Case Study VI: The Case of Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index
The Analyst’s Roadmap
Notă biografică
Katherine Hibbs Pherson, President of Globalytica, LLC, consults with government and private industry on building strong analytic communities, the use of structured analytic techniques, and security issues. She teaches certificate courses on structured thinking and presentation for the security association ASIS International and in the Intelligence Masters program at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, Spain. As Vice Chair of the Intelligence and National Security Association (INSA)¿s Security Policy Reform Council, she was primary drafter of its white paper titled ¿Next Steps for Security Reform: Industry Proposals to Enhance Efficiency and Reduce Costs in National Security Contracts,¿ which has generated a series of productive exchanges among government and industry.
Ms. Pherson is also Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, LLC, and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit established in 2011 to promote the effective use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques by teaching, certifying, and applying these skills in universities in the United States and Europe. She retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2000 after a twenty-seven-year career in intelligence and security analysis and resource management. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence¿s Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community¿s involvement in rebuilding the penetrated US Embassy in Moscow. She is a recipient of the CIA¿s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal
and the Intelligence Community¿s National Distinguished Service Medal. She received her AB from Vassar College, an MA in Spanish
linguistics and Latin American studies from the University of Illinois, and an MA in
Ms. Pherson is also Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, LLC, and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit established in 2011 to promote the effective use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques by teaching, certifying, and applying these skills in universities in the United States and Europe. She retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2000 after a twenty-seven-year career in intelligence and security analysis and resource management. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence¿s Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community¿s involvement in rebuilding the penetrated US Embassy in Moscow. She is a recipient of the CIA¿s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal
and the Intelligence Community¿s National Distinguished Service Medal. She received her AB from Vassar College, an MA in Spanish
linguistics and Latin American studies from the University of Illinois, and an MA in
Descriere
A straightforward, easy-to-use resource on the core principles of critical thinking in intelligence analysis.