Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement
Autor Philip Hans Fransesen Limba Engleză Hardback – 8 oct 2014
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781107081598
ISBN-10: 1107081599
Pagini: 144
Ilustrații: 9 b/w illus. 18 tables
Dimensiuni: 10 x 229 x 152 mm
Greutate: 0.32 kg
Editura: Cambridge University Press
Colecția Cambridge University Press
Locul publicării:New York, United States
ISBN-10: 1107081599
Pagini: 144
Ilustrații: 9 b/w illus. 18 tables
Dimensiuni: 10 x 229 x 152 mm
Greutate: 0.32 kg
Editura: Cambridge University Press
Colecția Cambridge University Press
Locul publicării:New York, United States
Cuprins
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Optimal behavior of experts; 3. Observed behavior of experts; 4. How accurate are expert-adjusted forecasts?; 5. How can forecasts be improved?; 6. Conclusion, limitations and implications; Data appendix; References; Index.
Recenzii
'All economic and business forecasting involves judgment to some extent, but most books focus on the application of statistical methods. At last we have a book that directly addresses the role of judgment in forecasting and applies a set of rigorous methods to assess its potential strengths and limitations.' Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath
'This monograph is an important substantial analysis of a crucial aspect of forecasting practice that is often treated far too casually. Expert interventions on model-based forecasts are ubiquitous, but rarely subject to formal analysis. This book will be valuable in practice and a stimulus to researchers.' Derek Bunn, London Business School
'This monograph is an important substantial analysis of a crucial aspect of forecasting practice that is often treated far too casually. Expert interventions on model-based forecasts are ubiquitous, but rarely subject to formal analysis. This book will be valuable in practice and a stimulus to researchers.' Derek Bunn, London Business School
Notă biografică
Descriere
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.