From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030
Autor Roman Muzalevsky Editat de Strategic Studies Institute (U.S.) Cuvânt înainte de Jr. Douglas C. Lovelace Editat de Army War College (U.S.), Army Dept. (U.S.), Defense Dept.en Limba Engleză Paperback – 12 iul 2015 – vârsta de la 18 ani
The
nuclear
talks
between
Iran
and
P5+1
(the
five
United
Nations
[UN] Security
Council
nuclear
powers:
the
United
States,
Britain,
France,
Russia,
and
China,
plus
Germany)
following
most
stringent
sanctions
against
Iran
to
date
have
opened
new
prospects
for
relaxation
of
tensions
between
Tehran
and
the
West
and
for
a
U.S.-Iranian
détente
in
the
long
run.
The
coming
to
power
of
new
presidential
administrations
in
both
the
United
States
and
Iran,
the
additional
sanctions,
major
geo-economic
and
geo-political
trends,
and
U.S.-Iranian
economic
and
security
cooperation
imperatives
all
contributed
to
these
dynamics.
Some view the talks as a new beginning in U.S.-Iranian ties, which could herald the emergence of a U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship in the next 15 years. This work has developed three such possible strategic relationships: 1) strategic engagement involving a nuclear weapons-capable Iran; 2) comprehensive cooperation following a “Grand Bargain”; and 3) incremental strategic engagement after a nuclear deal. These relationships deliberately focus on constructive engagement, skipping the status quo and the strike on Iran as two other possible outcomes. If they pull it off by 2030, a U.S.-Iranian détente would advance external integration of the region, aiding the U.S. strategy of fostering global connectivity. It would promote resolution of conflicts and development and reconstruction of countries ravaged by wars and sectarian violence. It would also enable Washington to deploy select military assets to other locales to address other challenges while re-purposing remaining forces to face new threats in the Greater Middle East.
This text’s primary focus is on the U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship and negotiations. Political scientists, international relations scholars, U.S. foreign diplomats, lawmakers, policy analysts, and military strategists may be interested in this work. Students in undergraduate international affairs programs may find this book helpful with their Middle East studies curriculum, especially concerning foreign diplomacy matters.
Other titles pertaining to this topic include the following:
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, V. XXVII, Iran, Iraq, 1973-1976can be found at this link:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02650-3?ctid=1040
Iran resources collectioncan be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/international-foreign-affairs/middle-e...
Some view the talks as a new beginning in U.S.-Iranian ties, which could herald the emergence of a U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship in the next 15 years. This work has developed three such possible strategic relationships: 1) strategic engagement involving a nuclear weapons-capable Iran; 2) comprehensive cooperation following a “Grand Bargain”; and 3) incremental strategic engagement after a nuclear deal. These relationships deliberately focus on constructive engagement, skipping the status quo and the strike on Iran as two other possible outcomes. If they pull it off by 2030, a U.S.-Iranian détente would advance external integration of the region, aiding the U.S. strategy of fostering global connectivity. It would promote resolution of conflicts and development and reconstruction of countries ravaged by wars and sectarian violence. It would also enable Washington to deploy select military assets to other locales to address other challenges while re-purposing remaining forces to face new threats in the Greater Middle East.
This text’s primary focus is on the U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship and negotiations. Political scientists, international relations scholars, U.S. foreign diplomats, lawmakers, policy analysts, and military strategists may be interested in this work. Students in undergraduate international affairs programs may find this book helpful with their Middle East studies curriculum, especially concerning foreign diplomacy matters.
Other titles pertaining to this topic include the following:
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, V. XXVII, Iran, Iraq, 1973-1976can be found at this link:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02650-3?ctid=1040
Iran resources collectioncan be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/international-foreign-affairs/middle-e...
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781584876793
ISBN-10: 1584876794
Pagini: 127
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 6 mm
Greutate: 0 kg
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army
ISBN-10: 1584876794
Pagini: 127
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 6 mm
Greutate: 0 kg
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army
Notă biografică
ABOUT
THE
AUTHOR
ROMAN MUZALEVSKY works for iJet International Inc., performing research, reporting, and analysis of global, regional, and national security affairs, risks, and trends, as well as providing incident response and crisis management services. He is also a Contributing Analyst on Eurasian Affairs and Security at Jamestown Foundation. Previously, he worked for CSM Solutions Inc., National Democratic Institute, DFID Public Finance Reform Project, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, security consultancy Wikistrat, and global strategy advisory consultancy Krull Corp. in the United States and Central Asia. He conducted research on security issues in the post-Soviet space at the Center for Political and Military Analysis at Hudson Institute as part of the George F. Jewett Foundation Fellowship Award for Projects on the Study and Practice of Grand Strategies. Mr. Muzalevsky has authored dozens of articles on Eurasian and global affairs, geopolitics, security, and strategic trends. In 2013, he authored a monograph, titled, Central Asia’s Shrinking Connectivity Gap: Implications for U.S. Strategy, published by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. He received his M.A. in international affairs with concentration in security and strategy studies from Yale University and has a diploma in international affairs from the International Ataturk Ala-Too University in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia.
ROMAN MUZALEVSKY works for iJet International Inc., performing research, reporting, and analysis of global, regional, and national security affairs, risks, and trends, as well as providing incident response and crisis management services. He is also a Contributing Analyst on Eurasian Affairs and Security at Jamestown Foundation. Previously, he worked for CSM Solutions Inc., National Democratic Institute, DFID Public Finance Reform Project, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, security consultancy Wikistrat, and global strategy advisory consultancy Krull Corp. in the United States and Central Asia. He conducted research on security issues in the post-Soviet space at the Center for Political and Military Analysis at Hudson Institute as part of the George F. Jewett Foundation Fellowship Award for Projects on the Study and Practice of Grand Strategies. Mr. Muzalevsky has authored dozens of articles on Eurasian and global affairs, geopolitics, security, and strategic trends. In 2013, he authored a monograph, titled, Central Asia’s Shrinking Connectivity Gap: Implications for U.S. Strategy, published by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. He received his M.A. in international affairs with concentration in security and strategy studies from Yale University and has a diploma in international affairs from the International Ataturk Ala-Too University in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia.
Cuprins
Table
of
Contents
Foreword........................................................vii
About the Author ............................................xi
Summary………...……….…….....................xiii
1. Introduction: The Time Has Come…............1
2. Forces Driving U.S.-Iranian Détente...……..9
New Administrations and the Potential for Change..........9
The Bite of Sanctions as the Stimulus for Negotiations.......14
Geo-economic Trends and the Merits of Economic Engagement.....18
Geopolitical Dynamics and Security Cooperation Imperatives....23
3. U.S.-Iranian Strategic Relationship in 2030....…37
Strategic Engagement Ensues after Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapons Capability..38
Comprehensive Cooperation Follows after Parties “U”-Turn and Reach a “G” Bargain..41
Incremental Strategic Engagement Emerges as Sides Continue Advancing Ties..43
The Three Alternative Futures—Likelihood and Plausibility Assessment...46
4. Cultivating and Preparing for Strategic Change...........67
Steering Relationships with Key Players……67
Enhancing Regional Economic Development.....76
Adapting Regional Military Posture….........82
Advancing Regional Institutional Capacity............93
5. Conclusion: What is Next? Prospects, Vision, Steps.........107
Foreword........................................................vii
About the Author ............................................xi
Summary………...……….…….....................xiii
1. Introduction: The Time Has Come…............1
2. Forces Driving U.S.-Iranian Détente...……..9
New Administrations and the Potential for Change..........9
The Bite of Sanctions as the Stimulus for Negotiations.......14
Geo-economic Trends and the Merits of Economic Engagement.....18
Geopolitical Dynamics and Security Cooperation Imperatives....23
3. U.S.-Iranian Strategic Relationship in 2030....…37
Strategic Engagement Ensues after Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapons Capability..38
Comprehensive Cooperation Follows after Parties “U”-Turn and Reach a “G” Bargain..41
Incremental Strategic Engagement Emerges as Sides Continue Advancing Ties..43
The Three Alternative Futures—Likelihood and Plausibility Assessment...46
4. Cultivating and Preparing for Strategic Change...........67
Steering Relationships with Key Players……67
Enhancing Regional Economic Development.....76
Adapting Regional Military Posture….........82
Advancing Regional Institutional Capacity............93
5. Conclusion: What is Next? Prospects, Vision, Steps.........107