Models of the Oil Market

1. Introduction; 2. Historical Overview of the Market; 2.1. Introduction; 2.2. 1945 to 1970; 2.3. 1970 to 1973; 2.4. The 1973 price increase; 2.5. 1974 to 1978; 2.6. The 1979–1980 price increases; 2.7. 1981 to the present; 3. Informal Models; 3.1. Introduction; 3.2. The relevance of exhaustibility; 3.3. Competitive supply of oil; 3.4. Demand; 3.5. Models emphasizing monopoly behavior; 3.5.1. The cartel model: theory; 3.5.2. Dominant firm: theory; 3.5.3. The cartel model: application to the oil market; 3.5.4. The dominant firm model: application to the oil market; 3.6. Models emphasizing competitive behavior; 3.6.1. Backward bending supply curve; 3.6.2. Property rights model; 3.6.3. Supply shock models; 3.7. Conclusion; 4. Simulation Models; 4.1. Introduction; 4.2. Model building for the oil market; 4.2.1. The ‘ideal’ model; 4.2.2. Problems of implementation of the ideal model; 4.3. Results; 4.4. Conclusion; 5. Theoretical Models; 5.1. Introduction; 5.2. Modeling production; 5.3. Games between producers and consumers; 6. Empirical Tests of the Oil Market; 6.1. Introduction; 6.2. Econometric tests; 7. Consensus and Open Issues; 8. Conclusion; Bibliography; Epilogue; Index;

Crémer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market and this survey integrates them in a coherent framework.