Perspectives on Global Change de Jan Rotmans

Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach

Jan Rotmans

Bert de Vries

Human activity is undeniably affecting the rates of change of many parts of the global system. How this global change develops into the future is vitally important, but modelling these changes requires a complex, integrated assessment of a wide range of disciplines in science and social science. This book describes the structure, assumptions, philosophy and results of an advanced global integrated assessment model: TARGETS. For a number of future directions selected on the basis of divergent cultural perspectives, the model charts global implications in terms of population and health, energy, land- and water-use and biogeochemical cycles. This integrated assessment approach has led to innovative fresh insights into global change. The book will help policymakers formulate the strategies required for a sustainable global future. It will be of interest to a broad audience, from researchers and modellers of global change in science and social science, to policy analysts, decision makers and economists, and students of all aspects of global change.

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Cuprins

1. Global change and sustainable development Rotmans, van Asselt, de Vries; 2. Concepts Rotmans, van Asselt, de Vries; 3. The TARGETS model Rotmans et al.; 4. The population and health submodel Niessen and Hilderink; 5. The energy submodel: TIME de Vries and Janssen; 6. The water submodel: AQUA Hoekstra; 7. The land and food submodel: TERRA Strengers, den Elzen and Köster; 8. The biogeochemical submodel: CYCLES den Elzen et al.; 9. Indicators for sustainable development Rotmans; 10. Uncertainties in perspective van Asselt and Rotmans; 11. Towards an integrated assessment of global change Rotmans et al.; 12. Population and health in perspective Hilderink and van Asselt; 13. Energy systems in transition de Vries, Beusen and Janssen; 14. Water in crisis Hoekstra et al.; 15. Food for the future Strengers et al.; 16. Human disturbance of the global biogeochemical cycles den Elzen; 17. The larger picture: Utopian futures de Vries; 18. Uncertainty and risk: Dystopian futures de Vries; 19. Global change: fresh insights, no simple answers de Vries et al.; References; Index.