Cantitate/Preț
Produs

Predicting Conflict

Autor John David
en Limba Engleză Hardback – 14 sep 2018
This book should be useful to anyone interested in identifying the causes of civil conflict and doing something to end it. It even suggests a pathway for the lay reader. Civil conflict is a persistent source of misery to humankind. Its study, however, lacks a comprehensive theory of its causes. Nevertheless, the question of cooperation or conflict is at the heart of political economy. This book introduces Machine Learning to explore whether there even is a unified theory of conflict, and if there is, whether it is a 'good' one. A good theory is one that not only identifies the causes of conflict, but also identifies those causes that predict conflict. Machine learning algorithms use out of sample techniques to choose between competing hypotheses about the sources of conflict according to their predictive accuracy. This theoretically agnostic 'picking' has the added benefit of offering some protection against many of the problems noted in the current literature; the tangled causality between conflict and its correlates, the relative rarity of civil conflict at a global level, missing data, and spectacular statistical assumptions. This book argues that the search for a unified theory of conflict must begin among these more predictive sources of civil conflict. In fact, in the book, there is a clear sense that game theoretic rational choice models of bargaining/commitment failure predict conflict better than any other approach. In addition, the algorithms highlight the fact that conflict is path dependent - it tends to continue once started. This is intuitive in many ways but is roundly ignored as a matter of science. It should not. Further, those causes of conflict that best predict conflict can be used as policy levers to end or prevent conflict. This book should therefore be of interest to military and civil leaders engaged in ending civil conflict. Last, though not least, the book highlights how the sources of conflict affect conflict. This additional insight may allow the crafting of policies that match a country's specific circumstance.
Citește tot Restrânge

Preț: 63106 lei

Preț vechi: 81956 lei
-23% Nou

Puncte Express: 947

Preț estimativ în valută:
12077 12702$ 10060£

Carte tipărită la comandă

Livrare economică 03-17 ianuarie 25

Preluare comenzi: 021 569.72.76

Specificații

ISBN-13: 9781498520676
ISBN-10: 1498520677
Pagini: 182
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 20 mm
Greutate: 0.46 kg
Editura: Rowman & Littlefield

Notă biografică

Atin Basuchoudhary, is professor of business and economics at Virginia Military Institute James T. Bang, is professor of economics at St. Ambrose University Tinni Sen, is professor of business and economics at Virginia Military Institute John David, is professor of applied mathematics at Virginia Military Institute

Descriere

In spite of intense but traditional academic effort, a unique formal framework to study civil conflict has been elusive. This book uses predictive machine learning to highlight a framework to identify potential causes of civil conflict. Machine learning also improves the human ability to predict and therefore prevent conflict.