Prediction or Prophecy?: The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences
Autor Gregor Betz Cuvânt înainte de Prof. Dr. Holm Tetensen Limba Engleză Paperback – 26 sep 2006
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9783835002234
ISBN-10: 3835002236
Pagini: 300
Ilustrații: XV, 280 p.
Dimensiuni: 148 x 210 x 16 mm
Greutate: 0.36 kg
Ediția:2006
Editura: Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Colecția Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Locul publicării:Wiesbaden, Germany
ISBN-10: 3835002236
Pagini: 300
Ilustrații: XV, 280 p.
Dimensiuni: 148 x 210 x 16 mm
Greutate: 0.36 kg
Ediția:2006
Editura: Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Colecția Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Locul publicării:Wiesbaden, Germany
Public țintă
ResearchCuprins
Assessing the predictive limits of economics.- Recent performance of economic forecasts.- A historical perspective on economic forecast performance.- Forecast performance in natural sciences.- Understanding the predictive limits of economics.- Predictability of complex systems.- The quality of data.- Expectations and reflexiveness.- Sensitive dependence on initial conditions.- Experiment and simulation.- Unrealistic-assumption explanations.- Living with the predictive limits of economics.- Consequences for traditional decision making.- Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance.- Post-normal science.
Notă biografică
Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.
Textul de pe ultima copertă
Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions.
Gregor Betz explores the following questions:
"Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge?
"Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken?
"Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation.
Gregor Betz explores the following questions:
"Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge?
"Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken?
"Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation.