THE POPULATION OF GREAT BRITAIN This series of studies, of which the present volume is the first, is issued by the Research De partment of The London Press Exchange Ltd., as a contribu tion to the factual background of post-war problems affecting British industry and commerce, and the distribution of British products. no ST. MARTINS LANE LONDON - W. C. a THE POPULATION OF GREAT BRITAIN CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROBLEMS MARK ABRAMS PUBLISHED FOR THE LONDON PRESS EXCHANGE LTD BY GEORGE ALLEN UNWIN LTD 40 MUSEUM STREET W. C. i CONTENTS I THE PRE-WAR SITUATION The nineteenth century 7 The measurement of population growth, p. 9 Death rates, p. 9 Migrfajtfn, jx ity Birth rates and repro duction rates 1 1 Changes since the eighties 13 The importance of age composition 4 Economic measurement of population 16 II THE WAR PERIOD i III POST-WAR PROSPECTS 21 IV CONSEQUENCES, CAUSES AND REMEDIES . . 23 Some economic consequences, p. 2 5 Employment prospects inparticular occupations, p. 26 effects on taxation, p. 28 effects on the trade cycle 28 Some suggested causes, p. 30 Changes in fecundity, p. 30 changes in nuptiality, p 3 changes in social values and interests 3 The economics of parenthood 33 Some suggested remedies, p. 34 Laissez-aller, p. 34 repressive measures, p-35 positive measures, p. 36 child allowances 37 The limitations of child allowances 39 V THE FUTURE SOME ESTIMATES 41 Appendix i The new birth and marriage statistics . 46 Further reading 5 POPULATION TRENDS 1911 1961 15 ,8 ii 1111 1938 1946 1951 -1961 THE PRE-WAR SITUATION IN the summer of 1939 the estimated population of Great Britain i. e., England, Wales and Scotland was 46,467,000. In terms of the worlds total population that was hardly a substantial figure it constituted less than three per cent, of the globes inhabitants and as a national total was exceeded by at least half-a-dozen other units China, India, U. S. S. R., U. S. A., Japan and ESTIMATED POPULATIONS Germany. DECEMBER, 1938 U. S. S. R. U. S. A. . . Japan . . Germany Great Britain Brazil .. Italy France . . 170,000,000 130,000,000 73,000,000 69,000,000 46,000,000 44,000,000 43,000,000 42,000,000 Excluding Austria, Sudeten and, Memel The nineteenth centuty It was the product, however, of 150 years of unprecedented growth. There are no reliable counts of Britains population before the nine teenth century, but it is probable that for several hundred years the number of people in this country fluctuated round the five million mark. Then in the middle of the 1 8th century as the industrial and transport revolutions started Britain on her career as the worlds workshop, carrier and entrepot, the popu lation began to grow rapidly. Between the beginning and the end of the i gth century, in spite of a steady drain of emigrants to the colonies and the United States, Britains population more than trebled. Almost certainly this was achieved, not by any increase in the number of child ren born to the average woman but by a steady fall in the death rate made possible by advances in medical science and communal sanitation. In 1801, in the middle of the Napoleonic Wars, the first census was taken in this country. The returns for Great Britain showed a total 7 population of 10,500,000. By i8ai, after the war and its subsequent depression had been passed, the figure had grown to 14,092,000, and a generation later, that is, at the mid point of the century, it had passed the 20,000,000 mark. In fifty years Britains population had doubled in the subsequent fifty years almost the same over-all rate of growth was maintained and the new century opened with a population of 37,000,000. This appearance of unchecked growth, however, was misleading. In the last decade of the I9th century, although the total population continued to increase, the rate of increase began to slow down appreci ably. The twentieth century, so far, has not checked this new develop ment Britains population continues to grow but at an ever-diminishing rate...