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Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future

Henry D. Sokoloski Contribuţii de Andrew W. Marshall Editat de Strategic Studies Institute (U.S.) Army War College (U.S.)
en Limba Engleză Paperback – 15 mar 2016 – vârsta ani
With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.This, in a nutshell, is the premise ofUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what nuclear futures we may face over the next 3 decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
 
Audience: This book may appeal to national strategic policy analysts, political scientists, and students researching nuclear defenses, nuclear terrorism, and nuclear proliferation as part of pursuing an international relations degree.

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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9781584877196
ISBN-10: 1584877197
Pagini: 154
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 6 mm
Greutate: 0.25 kg
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army

Recenzii

NPEC  Nonproliferation Policy Education Center   Book Review Article -- Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Future, Second Edition September 2016


  "With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.
This, in a nutshell, is the premise ofUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against over the next few decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?








 

Featured in NATO Multimedia Library -Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation Books  http://www.natolibguides.info/armscontrol/books

 

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Article:Our Not So Peaceful nuclear futureby Lucien Crowder  September 17, 2015  http://thebulletin.org/our-not-so-peaceful-nuclear-future8753


" The book's central thesis is that if "states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage... US security may become hostage to nuclear proliferation" and a number of dangers." 





 

Showcased inALA's Notable Government Documents, 2016 collection      http://reviews.libraryjournal.com/2017/05/reference/research-at-risk-notable-government-documents-2016/
 Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future. by Henry D. Sokolski. U.S. Army War Coll. & Strategic Studies Inst. 2016. 130p. illus. maps. ISBN 9781584877196. SuDocs# D 101.146:UN 2. GPO Stock# 008-000-01175-3. $20. purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo64725
"This strategic study is a timely observation of what the author sees as “our not so peaceful nuclear future.” He addresses the growing stockpiles of separated plutonium and of highly enriched uranium, as well as the likely expansion of nuclear power programs in more countries. Sokolski’s brief volume discusses the key popular views on nuclear proliferation and how much worse matters might get if states continue with relatively loosely controlled nuclear activities. His purpose is to address a gap in the literature as arguments made by policy­makers and academics for preventing further nuclear proliferation are uneven. Each of the basic views—official, hawkish, and academic—spotlight some aspect of the truth, but each is incomplete. The author’s own view is surprisingly ­optimistic."

Notă biografică


ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

HENRY D. SOKOLSKIis the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. He previ­ously served in the Senate as a nuclear and military legislative aide and in the Pentagon as Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy and as a full-time consultant on proliferation issues in the Secretary of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment. Mr. Sokolski also served as a member of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Senior Advisory Group, on two congressional nuclear pro­liferation commissions, and has authored and edited numerous volumes on strategic weapons prolifera­tion, includingBest of Intentions: America’s Campaign against Strategic Weapons ProliferationandMoving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation.

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS: 

 
ANDREW W. MARSHALLis the former director of the U.S. Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assess­ment. Appointed to the position in 1973 by President Richard Nixon, Mr. Marshall was re-appointed by every president that followed. He retired in 2015. In the 1950s and 1960s, Mr. Marshall conducted strategic research at the RAND Corporation.
 

Cuprins

TABLE OF CONTENTS


Figures ...........................................................................xv
Foreword .................................................................... xvii
Andrew W. Marshall
About the Contributors .……………….............…… xix
List of Acronyms ……………………......................... xxi
Introduction ……………….................................………1
What We Think …………………..............................….4
Reservations …………………......................... .10
Optimists All …………………....................... ..25
Where We Are Headed ………………........................28
Looking Backward ………………...........…….28
Why Worry? ………………........................... ... 36
Going Ballistic ………………...................…… 39
War Scenarios …………………........................42
China and the Nuclear Rivalries Ahead.........44
Other Interested Parties …................… ……...49
What Might Help ………………………..................…62
Thinking Ahead …………………................… 80