Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
Henry D. Sokoloski Contribuţii de Andrew W. Marshall Editat de Strategic Studies Institute (U.S.) Army War College (U.S.)en Limba Engleză Paperback – 15 mar 2016 – vârsta ani
With
the
world
focused
on
the
nuclear
crisis
in
Iran,
it
is
tempting
to
think
that
addressing
this
case,
North
Korea,
and
the
problem
of
nuclear
terrorism
is
all
that
matters
and
is
what
matters
most.
Perhaps,
but
if
states
become
more
willing
to
use
their
nuclear
weapons
to
achieve
military
advantage,
the
problem
of
proliferation
will
become
much
more
unwieldy.
In
this
case,
U.S.
security
will
be
hostage
not
just
to
North
Korea,
Iran,
or
terrorists,
but
to
nuclear
proliferation
more
generally,
diplomatic
miscalculations,
and
wars
between
a
much
larger
number
of
possible
players.This,
in
a
nutshell,
is
the
premise
ofUnderestimated:
Our
Not
So
Peaceful
Nuclear
Future,
which
explores
what
nuclear
futures
we
may
face
over
the
next
3
decades
and
how
we
currently
think
about
this
future.
Will
nuclear
weapons
spread
in
the
next
20
years
to
more
nations
than
just
North
Korea
and
possibly
Iran?
How
great
will
the
consequences
be?
What
can
be
done?
Audience: This book may appeal to national strategic policy analysts, political scientists, and students researching nuclear defenses, nuclear terrorism, and nuclear proliferation as part of pursuing an international relations degree.
Related products:Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977-1980, Volume XXVI, Arms Control and Nonproliferationcan be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02673-2
Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01130-3
Arms Control Historycollection can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/us-military-history/arms-control-history
Arms & Weaponscollection can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement/arms-...
Audience: This book may appeal to national strategic policy analysts, political scientists, and students researching nuclear defenses, nuclear terrorism, and nuclear proliferation as part of pursuing an international relations degree.
Related products:Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977-1980, Volume XXVI, Arms Control and Nonproliferationcan be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02673-2
Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01130-3
Arms Control Historycollection can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/us-military-history/arms-control-history
Arms & Weaponscollection can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement/arms-...
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781584877196
ISBN-10: 1584877197
Pagini: 154
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 6 mm
Greutate: 0.25 kg
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army
ISBN-10: 1584877197
Pagini: 154
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 6 mm
Greutate: 0.25 kg
Editura: United States Dept. of Defense
Colecția Department of the Army
Recenzii
NPEC
Nonproliferation
Policy
Education
Center
Book
Review
Article
--
Underestimated:
Our
Not
So
Peaceful
Future,
Second
Edition September
2016
"With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.
This, in a nutshell, is the premise ofUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against over the next few decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
"With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.
This, in a nutshell, is the premise ofUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against over the next few decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
- The
DiplomatpraisesUnderestimatedas
a
"thoughtful
and
sobering
study."
- The
Bulletin
of
the
Atomic
ScientistsshowcasesUnderestimatedin
their
first
international
book
review
telecast.
- Bruno
Tertrais
reviewsUnderestimatedin
IISS's
journal, Survival:
Global
Politics
and
Strategy.
- The Weekly Standard calls Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future a "must read."
Featured
in
NATO
Multimedia
Library
-Arms
Control,
Disarmament
and
Nonproliferation
Books http://www.natolibguides.info/armscontrol/books
Bulletin
of
the
Atomic
Scientists Article:Our
Not
So
Peaceful
nuclear
futureby
Lucien
Crowder
September
17,
2015
http://thebulletin.org/our-not-so-peaceful-nuclear-future8753
" The book's central thesis is that if "states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage... US security may become hostage to nuclear proliferation" and a number of dangers."
" The book's central thesis is that if "states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage... US security may become hostage to nuclear proliferation" and a number of dangers."
Showcased
inALA's
Notable
Government
Documents,
2016
collection
http://reviews.libraryjournal.com/2017/05/reference/research-at-risk-notable-government-documents-2016/
Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future. by Henry D. Sokolski. U.S. Army War Coll. & Strategic Studies Inst. 2016. 130p. illus. maps. ISBN 9781584877196. SuDocs# D 101.146:UN 2. GPO Stock# 008-000-01175-3. $20. purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo64725
"This strategic study is a timely observation of what the author sees as “our not so peaceful nuclear future.” He addresses the growing stockpiles of separated plutonium and of highly enriched uranium, as well as the likely expansion of nuclear power programs in more countries. Sokolski’s brief volume discusses the key popular views on nuclear proliferation and how much worse matters might get if states continue with relatively loosely controlled nuclear activities. His purpose is to address a gap in the literature as arguments made by policymakers and academics for preventing further nuclear proliferation are uneven. Each of the basic views—official, hawkish, and academic—spotlight some aspect of the truth, but each is incomplete. The author’s own view is surprisingly optimistic."
Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future. by Henry D. Sokolski. U.S. Army War Coll. & Strategic Studies Inst. 2016. 130p. illus. maps. ISBN 9781584877196. SuDocs# D 101.146:UN 2. GPO Stock# 008-000-01175-3. $20. purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo64725
"This strategic study is a timely observation of what the author sees as “our not so peaceful nuclear future.” He addresses the growing stockpiles of separated plutonium and of highly enriched uranium, as well as the likely expansion of nuclear power programs in more countries. Sokolski’s brief volume discusses the key popular views on nuclear proliferation and how much worse matters might get if states continue with relatively loosely controlled nuclear activities. His purpose is to address a gap in the literature as arguments made by policymakers and academics for preventing further nuclear proliferation are uneven. Each of the basic views—official, hawkish, and academic—spotlight some aspect of the truth, but each is incomplete. The author’s own view is surprisingly optimistic."
Notă biografică
ABOUT THE AUTHORS:
HENRY D. SOKOLSKIis the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. He previously served in the Senate as a nuclear and military legislative aide and in the Pentagon as Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy and as a full-time consultant on proliferation issues in the Secretary of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment. Mr. Sokolski also served as a member of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Senior Advisory Group, on two congressional nuclear proliferation commissions, and has authored and edited numerous volumes on strategic weapons proliferation, includingBest of Intentions: America’s Campaign against Strategic Weapons ProliferationandMoving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation.
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS:
ANDREW W. MARSHALLis the former director of the U.S. Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment. Appointed to the position in 1973 by President Richard Nixon, Mr. Marshall was re-appointed by every president that followed. He retired in 2015. In the 1950s and 1960s, Mr. Marshall conducted strategic research at the RAND Corporation.
Cuprins
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
Figures ...........................................................................xv
Foreword .................................................................... xvii
Andrew W. Marshall
About the Contributors .……………….............…… xix
List of Acronyms ……………………......................... xxi
Introduction ……………….................................………1
What We Think …………………..............................….4
Reservations …………………......................... .10
Optimists All …………………....................... ..25
Where We Are Headed ………………........................28
Looking Backward ………………...........…….28
Why Worry? ………………........................... ... 36
Going Ballistic ………………...................…… 39
War Scenarios …………………........................42
China and the Nuclear Rivalries Ahead.........44
Other Interested Parties …................… ……...49
What Might Help ………………………..................…62
Thinking Ahead …………………................… 80
Figures ...........................................................................xv
Foreword .................................................................... xvii
Andrew W. Marshall
About the Contributors .……………….............…… xix
List of Acronyms ……………………......................... xxi
Introduction ……………….................................………1
What We Think …………………..............................….4
Reservations …………………......................... .10
Optimists All …………………....................... ..25
Where We Are Headed ………………........................28
Looking Backward ………………...........…….28
Why Worry? ………………........................... ... 36
Going Ballistic ………………...................…… 39
War Scenarios …………………........................42
China and the Nuclear Rivalries Ahead.........44
Other Interested Parties …................… ……...49
What Might Help ………………………..................…62
Thinking Ahead …………………................… 80