The recent dramatic changes in Europe have outstripped our ability to clearly perceive what to expect in the future. Experts see the same events and conjure the broadest spectrum of predictions. There are those who foresee a potential Soviet backlash to Stalinism and therefore advocate continued containment strategies. There are also those who feel today's mood of amiability will last forever and are ready to cashier the defense budget for a peace dividend. Both sides can cite historical examples. Both sides also use the same threat factors (capabilities, intentions, vulnerabilities). But both sides are selective in what history they cite and they differ in how the threat formula should be applied. All this makes a big difference in how the past and the present are used to predict the future.