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Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice: Katalaktik, Bd. 6

Autor Friedrich Christian Kruse
en Limba Engleză Paperback – 17 sep 2012
Finance researchers and asset management practitioners put a lot of effort into the question of optimal asset allocation. With this respect, a lot of research has been conducted on portfolio decision making as well as quantitative modeling and prediction models. This study brings together three fields of research, which are usually analyzed in an isolated manner in the literature:- Predictability of asset returns and their covariance matrix- Optimal portfolio decision making- Nonlinear modeling, performed by artificial neural networks, and their impact on predictions as well as optimal portfolio constructionIncluding predictability in asset allocation is the focus of this work and it pays special attention to issues related to nonlinearities. The contribution of this study to the portfolio choice literature is twofold. First, motivated by the evidence of linear predictability, the impact of nonlinear predictions on portfolio performances is analyzed. Predictions are empirically performed for an investor who invests in equities (represented by the DAX index), bonds (represented by the REXP index) and a risk-free rate. Second, a solution to the dynamic programming problem for intertemporal portfolio choice is presented. The method is based on functional approximations of the investor's value function with artificial neural networks. The method is easily capable of handling multiple state variables. Hence, the effect of adding predictive parameters to the state space is the focus of analysis as well as the impacts of estimation biases and the view of a Bayesian investor on intertemporal portfolio choice. One important empirical result shows that residual correlation among state variables have an impact on intertemporal portfolio decision making.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9783844101850
ISBN-10: 3844101853
Pagini: 220
Dimensiuni: 148 x 210 x 14 mm
Greutate: 0.27 kg
Editura: Josef Eul Verlag GmbH
Colecția Katalaktik, Bd. 6
Seria Katalaktik, Bd. 6


Cuprins

1. Introduction2. Literature Review2.1. Predictability of Asset Returns2.2. Predictability of Volatility2.3. Portfolio Choice when Parameters are Predictable3. Approximations and Predictions by Artificial Neural Networks3.1. Methodology of Artificial Neural Networks3.2. Nonlinear Predictions of Asset Returns, Volatilities and Correlations3.3. Empirical Results3.4. Chapter Summary4. Predictions and Myopic Portfolio Choice4.1. Integrated Portfolio Decisions4.2. Mean-Variance Portfolios4.3. Mean-Variance Preferences and Utility4.4. Econometric Approaches in Portfolio Choice4.5. Performance Measures4.6. Empirical Results4.7. Chapter Summary5. Predictions and Intertemporal Portfolio Choice5.1. Intertemporal Optimal Portfolios in Discrete-Time5.2. Including Parameter Uncertainty5.3. Chapter Summary6. Conclusion

Notă biografică

Friedrich Christian Kruse, born in 1983 in Hagen, has been a research assistant at the Endowed Chair of Finance at WHU ¿ Otto Beisheim School of Management from May 2008 to December 2010. During this time, he has also been a visiting scholar at the NYU Stern Business School in New York City. Prior to that, the author studied Business Administration and Economics at the University of Passau as well as Lund University in Sweden and was educated by the Bayerische Elite-Akademie. He received his doctoral degree in 2012.