The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death
Autor Michael Blastland, David Spiegelhalteren Limba Engleză Paperback – 2 iun 2014
Is
it
safer
to
fly
or
take
the
train?
How
dangerous
is
skydiving?
And
is
eating
that
extra
sausage
going
to
kill
you?
We've
all
heard
the
statistics
for
risky
activities,
but
what
do
they
mean
in
the
real
world?
InThe
Norm
Chronicles,
journalist
Michael
Blastland
and
risk
expert
David
Spiegelhalter
explore
these
questions
through
the
stories
of
average
Norm
and
an
ingenious
measurement
called
the
MicroMort-a
one
in
a
million
chance
of
dying.
They
reveal
why
general
anesthesia
is
as
dangerous
as
a
parachute
jump,
giving
birth
in
the
US
is
nearly
twice
as
risky
as
in
the
UK,
and
that
the
radiation
from
eating
a
banana
shaves
3
seconds
off
your
life.
An
entertaining
guide
to
the
statistics
of
personal
risk,The
Norm
Chronicleswill
enlighten
anyone
who
has
ever
worried
about
the
dangers
we
encounter
in
our
daily
lives.
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| Profile – 5 iun 2014 | 54.38 lei 3-5 săpt. | +21.13 lei 6-12 zile |
| BASIC BOOKS – 2 iun 2014 | 175.60 lei 6-8 săpt. |
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9780465085705
ISBN-10: 0465085709
Pagini: 384
Dimensiuni: 140 x 206 x 29 mm
Greutate: 0.39 kg
Editura: BASIC BOOKS
Colecția Basic Books
Locul publicării:United States
ISBN-10: 0465085709
Pagini: 384
Dimensiuni: 140 x 206 x 29 mm
Greutate: 0.39 kg
Editura: BASIC BOOKS
Colecția Basic Books
Locul publicării:United States
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Notă biografică
Michael
Blastlandis
an
author,
journalist,
and
BBC
Radio
4
broadcaster.
He
is
the
author
of,
with
Andrew
Dilnot,
the
popular
math
books
The
Tiger
that
Isn'tandThe
Numbers
Game,
as
well
as
the
memoirThe
Only
Boy
in
the
World.
David Spiegelhalter, OBE,is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge. He is a fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge, and the Royal Society.
David Spiegelhalter, OBE,is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge. He is a fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge, and the Royal Society.
Recenzii
“Amidst
the
numbers
and
stories
on
topics
as
diverse
as
infant
mortality,
travel,
extreme
sports,
and
crime,
the
authors
examine
just
how
all
of
this
affects
non-theoretical
humans….The
whole
is
seasoned
with
a
dash
of
humor
to
create
a
work
that
should
satisfy
anyone
curious
about
just
how
and
when
this
mortal
coil
might
be
shuffled
off.”
—Publishers Weekly
“Tackling a factor in matters ranging from personal choices to public policy, this book's British authors — a journalist and a Cambridge statistician, respectively — make risk easy to understand without omitting its mathematical basis.”
—Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
“[The Norm Chronicles] is a truly engaging and attention-grabbing narrative that guides the reader through a multitude of helpful and/or curious statistics.”
—Metapsychology
“General readers will appreciate this engaging exploration of statistics and their relevance to daily life.”
—Library Journal
“Commendable for its wide compilation of facts and figures—but perhaps even more so for the authors' deep sense of uncertainties around data, statistics, and evidence.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“Blastland and Spiegelhalter'sThe Norm Chroniclesis irreverent, poignant, insightful, and just about the best book about risk I've ever read. It's also a paradox—a book about numbers and probabilities that'll keep you hooked to the last page. That shouldn't be possible. Using master story telling and a large dose of humanity, Blastland and Spiegelhalter transform the statistics of danger and death into a celebration of life. It's a rare feat, but one that's as compelling as it is important. This book is essential reading to anyone who has ever faced the possibility of something going wrong, and thought ‘what the …?!' Buy it!”
—Andrew Maynard, director, University of Michigan Risk Science Center
“Numbers matter, especially in the face of risk. This book is a powerful remedy for a deadly affliction—innumeracy.”
—Paul Slovic, president of Decision Research, and author of TheFeeling of Risk
“This engaging, entertaining book clarifies the complicated subject of risk, even as it manages to revel in the complexity. It clears the topic up without dumbing it down. What are the chances?”
—Joel Best, author ofDamned Lies and Statistics
“Blastland & Spiegelhalter achieve the amusing feat of bringing mortality data back from the dead. Reading this book will, in all probability, add years to your life.”
—Kaiser Fung, author ofNumbers Rule Your WorldandNumber Sense
“We have a really tough time understanding absolute, individualized risk—until now.The Norm Chroniclesprovides a long overdue, systematic, and entertaining dissection of life's risks.”
—Eric Topol, M.D., author ofThe Creative Destruction of Medicine
“In the same manner that the bumblebee disproved the calculations of an earlier time's aerodynamics, so Blastland and Spiegelhalter refute a central tenet of today's science of risk communication: that the meaning of numbers defies the narrative currency of everyday reasoning. Engaging, enlightening stories of probability, they demonstrate, are the most reliable means for transmitting empirical knowledge of the dangers we face and how to abate them.”
—Dan Kahan, Professor of Law and Psychology, Yale Law School
—Publishers Weekly
“Tackling a factor in matters ranging from personal choices to public policy, this book's British authors — a journalist and a Cambridge statistician, respectively — make risk easy to understand without omitting its mathematical basis.”
—Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
“[The Norm Chronicles] is a truly engaging and attention-grabbing narrative that guides the reader through a multitude of helpful and/or curious statistics.”
—Metapsychology
“General readers will appreciate this engaging exploration of statistics and their relevance to daily life.”
—Library Journal
“Commendable for its wide compilation of facts and figures—but perhaps even more so for the authors' deep sense of uncertainties around data, statistics, and evidence.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“You
can
read
this
stuff
in
a
prosecutorial
tone
of
voice,
if
you
like,
as
many
writers
on
perception
of
risk
have:
Look
how
irrational
and
wrong
everyone
is!
But
the
authors
take
a
different
tack—a
better
one.
They
argue
ably
that
mathematical
computations
should
be
a
buttress
to
our
judgment
but
concede
that
computations
will
never,
and
should
never,
replace
our
judgment
entirely.
Of
their
risk-buffeted
characters,
they
conclude:
‘We
don't
know
how
to
use
data
to
tell
them
how
to
live.'
If
they
don't,
no
one
does.”
—The Wall Street Journal
“A cheerfully subversive variation on the genre. Chapter by chapter … [The Norm Chronicles] does an energetic and laudable job of stretching the mind.”
—The New York Times
“They teach us how math helps us sensibly assess and manage risk. Just remember: You can crunch the numbers as much as you like, but when it comes down to any given individual, chance always plays a part.”
—The New York Times Book Review
—The Wall Street Journal
“A cheerfully subversive variation on the genre. Chapter by chapter … [The Norm Chronicles] does an energetic and laudable job of stretching the mind.”
—The New York Times
“They teach us how math helps us sensibly assess and manage risk. Just remember: You can crunch the numbers as much as you like, but when it comes down to any given individual, chance always plays a part.”
—The New York Times Book Review
“Blastland and Spiegelhalter'sThe Norm Chroniclesis irreverent, poignant, insightful, and just about the best book about risk I've ever read. It's also a paradox—a book about numbers and probabilities that'll keep you hooked to the last page. That shouldn't be possible. Using master story telling and a large dose of humanity, Blastland and Spiegelhalter transform the statistics of danger and death into a celebration of life. It's a rare feat, but one that's as compelling as it is important. This book is essential reading to anyone who has ever faced the possibility of something going wrong, and thought ‘what the …?!' Buy it!”
—Andrew Maynard, director, University of Michigan Risk Science Center
“Numbers matter, especially in the face of risk. This book is a powerful remedy for a deadly affliction—innumeracy.”
—Paul Slovic, president of Decision Research, and author of TheFeeling of Risk
“This engaging, entertaining book clarifies the complicated subject of risk, even as it manages to revel in the complexity. It clears the topic up without dumbing it down. What are the chances?”
—Joel Best, author ofDamned Lies and Statistics
“Blastland & Spiegelhalter achieve the amusing feat of bringing mortality data back from the dead. Reading this book will, in all probability, add years to your life.”
—Kaiser Fung, author ofNumbers Rule Your WorldandNumber Sense
“We have a really tough time understanding absolute, individualized risk—until now.The Norm Chroniclesprovides a long overdue, systematic, and entertaining dissection of life's risks.”
—Eric Topol, M.D., author ofThe Creative Destruction of Medicine
“In the same manner that the bumblebee disproved the calculations of an earlier time's aerodynamics, so Blastland and Spiegelhalter refute a central tenet of today's science of risk communication: that the meaning of numbers defies the narrative currency of everyday reasoning. Engaging, enlightening stories of probability, they demonstrate, are the most reliable means for transmitting empirical knowledge of the dangers we face and how to abate them.”
—Dan Kahan, Professor of Law and Psychology, Yale Law School