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The Primacy of Doubt

Autor Tim Palmer
en Limba Engleză Hardback – 17 oct 2022
"On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing chaos. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer tells the story of how scientists learned to accurately predict the weather, and how we can use those insights to predict everything else, from the workings of the brain and how it creates consciousness to how quantum mechanics enables everything we see to emerge from just four basic particles. The key is embracing uncertainty. In the case of the Great Storm of 1987, Palmer found, forecasters were too obsessed with finding an on-off switch in their models: either it would be stormy or it wouldn't. Palmer led the charge to inject probabilistic forecasting into weather models, a massive breakthrough that has revolutionized our ability not only to know whether to bring an umbrella, but to prevent life-threatening catastrophes. But weather isn't the only thing that we use deterministic models to predict. Our understanding of quantum physics, climate change, and the economy could all be revolutionized by acknowledging uncertainty, Palmer argues, and those revolutions are long overdue. A fascinating firsthand account of the science of uncertainty, The Primacy of Doubt is for anyone seeking to better understand not just what scientists do and don't understand about the universe. The Primacy of Doubt proves one thing for certain: the key to knowing is to admit when you don't know"--
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9781541619715
ISBN-10: 1541619714
Pagini: 320
Dimensiuni: 162 x 236 x 30 mm
Greutate: 0.52 kg
Editura: BASIC BOOKS

Descriere

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A bold, visionary, and mind-bending exploration of how the geometry of chaos can explain our uncertain world—from weather and pandemics to quantum physics and free willCovering a breathtaking range of topics—from climate change to the foundations of quantum physics, from economic modelling to conflict prediction, from free will to consciousness and spirituality—The Primacy of Doubt takes us on a unique journey through the science of uncertainty. A key theme that unifies these seemingly unconnected topics is the geometry of chaos: the beautiful and profound fractal structures that lie at the heart of much of modern mathematics. Royal Society Research Professor Tim Palmer shows us how the geometry of chaos not only provides the means to predict the world around us, it suggests new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves. This important and timely book helps the reader makes sense of uncertainty in a rapidly changing world.

Recenzii

The Primacy of Doubt provides a remarkably broad-ranging account of uncertainty in physics, in all its various aspects. I strongly recommend this highly thought-provoking book.
Tim Palmer is a scientific polymath. It's hard to think of anyone else who could have written so authoritatively—and so accessibly—on themes extending from quantum gravity to climate modelling. This fascinating and important book offers some profoundly original speculations on conceptual linkages across different sciences.
In a whirlwind of a book that's partly scientific autobiography and partly the manifest of a visionary, Tim Palmer masterfillly weaves together climate change and quantum mechanics into one coherent whole. Using uncertainty as a unifying principle, Palmer puts forward new perspectives on old problems. A revolutionary thinker way ahead of his time.
The Primacy of Doubt is an important book by one of the pioneers of dynamical weather prediction, indispensable for daily life.
Quite possibly the best popular science book I've ever read... The Primacy of Doubt is like getting off one of those exciting roller coaster rides, when your immediate inclination is to think 'I want to do that again, but I'll have a bit of a break first.' I will be reading this book again, without doubt. Remarkable.
important book
Physicist Palmer delivers a challenging but rewarding look at how uncertainty helps scientists make sense of the world ... Despite the complexity of his arguments, the author succeeds at bringing complicated theories within reach of those who have a basic familiarity with physics. Science-minded readers, take note.
The Primacy of Doubt also contains very informative explanations as to the application of chaos theory in climate and meteorological models, and why meteorologists failed to predict southern Britain's 1987 hurricane. To my mind this were probably the book's strongest areas and are 'must reads' for those with an interest in climate forecasting.
delightful and substantive
An exploration of the amorphous concept of uncertainty... [an] informative, ingenious book.
Provocative... useful for scientists and non-scientists alike

Notă biografică

Tim Palmer is a Royal Society Research Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford. Following a PhD in general relativity theory, he spent much of his career working on the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, developing probabilistic ensemble prediction systems across a range of weather and climate timescales. He also researches the foundations of quantum physics, in addition to applications of quantum and imprecise computing. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society and an International Member of the US National Academy of Sciences. Amongst other awards, he has won the Institute of Physics Dirac Gold Medal, and the top medals of the American and European Meteorological Societies.