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Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts

Autor Mark A. Burgman
en Limba Engleză Paperback – 25 oct 2015
Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9781107531024
ISBN-10: 1107531020
Pagini: 214
Ilustrații: 56 b/w illus. 4 tables
Dimensiuni: 152 x 228 x 11 mm
Greutate: 0.35 kg
Editura: Cambridge University Press
Colecția Cambridge University Press
Locul publicării:New York, United States

Cuprins

Preface; Acknowledgements; 1. What's wrong with consulting experts?; 2. Kinds of uncertainty; 3. What leads experts astray?; 4. Dealing with individual experts; 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited; 6. Tips to get the best out of experts; Appendix. Sources; References; Index.

Recenzii

'Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts … is very clearly and logically structured … this book is written in easy and enjoyable language and very much oriented toward practical needs.' Pierre L. Ibisch, Conservation Biology

Descriere

Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.