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Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II: Pageoph Topical Volumes

Editat de Martha Savage, David A. Rhoades, Euan G. C. Smith, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, David Vere-Jones
en Limba Engleză Paperback – 25 aug 2010
This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is one of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. A biography of Frank Evison and a list of his publications is included, as well as review papers and new research papers in the field. The volume includes papers related to Frank's most abiding interest of precursory earthquake swarms. The research contributions cover a range of current forecasting methods such as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock model, the Every Earthquake a precursor According to Scale model, Pattern Informatics, Reverse Tracing of Precursors, stochastic models of elastic rebound, and methods for handling multiple precursors. The methods considered employ a variety of statistical approaches to using previous seismicity to forecast future earthquakes, including regional and global earthquake likelihood models and alarm-type forecasts. The forecast time-frames of interest range from the short time-frame associated with clustering of aftershocks to the long time-frame associated with recurrence of major earthquakes. A recurring theme is the assessment of forecasting performance, whether by likelihood scores, skill scores, error diagrams, or relative operating characteristic tests. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9783034604994
ISBN-10: 3034604998
Pagini: 274
Ilustrații: VI, 274 p.
Dimensiuni: 193 x 270 x 23 mm
Ediția:2010
Editura: Springer
Colecția Birkhäuser
Seria Pageoph Topical Volumes

Locul publicării:Basel, Switzerland

Public țintă

Research

Cuprins

First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment.- New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre.- The Area Skill Score Statistic for Evaluating Earthquake Predictability Experiments.- Space—Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams.- Identifying Seismicity Levels via Poisson Hidden Markov Models.- Distribution of Seismicity Before the Larger Earthquakes in Italy in the Time Interval 1994–2004.- Predicting the Human Losses Implied by Predictions of Earthquakes: Southern Sumatra and Central Chile.- Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results.- Spatial Separation of Large Earthquakes, Aftershocks, and Background Seismicity: Analysis of Interseismic and Coseismic Seismicity Patterns in Southern California.- Earthquake Source Zones in Northeast India: Seismic Tomography, Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping.- Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations.- Correlation of Static Stress Changes and Earthquake Occurrence in the North Aegean Region.- Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation.- Earthquake Recurrence in Simulated Fault Systems.- Continuous Observation of Groundwater and Crustal Deformation for Forecasting Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes in Japan.- Anomalies of Seismic Activity and Transient Crustal Deformations Preceding the 2005 M 7.0 Earthquake West of Fukuoka.

Caracteristici

Review papers as well as new research Presents methods for testing predictions Presents (first) results from renowned experiments and test centers