The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
Autor Nate Silveren Limba Engleză Paperback – 17 apr 2013
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting.
InThe Signal and the Noise, theNew York Timespolitical forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data.
'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona,Sunday Telegraph
'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically'Guardian
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9780141975658
ISBN-10: 0141975652
Pagini: 544
Dimensiuni: 129 x 198 x 23 mm
Greutate: 0.38 kg
Editura: Penguin Books
Colecția Penguin
Locul publicării:London, United Kingdom
ISBN-10: 0141975652
Pagini: 544
Dimensiuni: 129 x 198 x 23 mm
Greutate: 0.38 kg
Editura: Penguin Books
Colecția Penguin
Locul publicării:London, United Kingdom
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Notă biografică
Nate
Silver
is
a
statistician
and
political
forecaster
atThe
New
York
Times.
In
2012,
he
correctly
predicted
the
outcome
of
50
out
of
50
states
during
the
US
presidential
election,
trumping
the
professional
pollsters
and
pundits.
He
was
named
one
of
TIME's
100
Most
Influential
People
in
the
world,
and
one
of
Rolling
Stones'
top
Agents
of
Change.
He
lives
in
Brooklyn,
New
York.
Recenzii
Outstanding...
I
was
hooked
One of the more momentous books of the decade
A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically
The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-readingThe Signal and the Noise...They will find the book remarkable and rewarding
Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe?
Fascinating... our age's Brunel
A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability
The Galileo of number crunchers
A 34-year old Delphic Oracle
One of the more momentous books of the decade
A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically
The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-readingThe Signal and the Noise...They will find the book remarkable and rewarding
Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe?
Fascinating... our age's Brunel
A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability
The Galileo of number crunchers
A 34-year old Delphic Oracle
Descriere
Descriere de la o altă ediție sau format:
"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift"
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift"
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.